Report: Political instability on the rise
1. Somalia
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| People walk with their belongings in the area around Sinujiif as they evacuate on November 14, 2013 after a ferocious storm and days of heavy floods in Somalia's northeastern Puntland region. Somalia has ranked in the top 10 in Maplecroft's political risk index for the past six years. |
2. Syria
3. Afghanistan
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| An Afghan policeman stands guard in front of a badly damaged bus at the site of a suicide attack in Kabul on June 11, 2013. More than 1,000 Afghan civilians died in violent attacks in the first half of 2013, according to the U.N. |
4. Sudan
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| Sudanese protesters throw stones at a gas station in Khartoum's twin city of Omdurman on Wednesday. Sudan is among the countries where political violence continues to increase, Maplecroft said. |
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| Fighters from the M23 rebel movement ride on the back of a truck, passing a camp for the internally displaced in Mugunga, Democratic Republic of Congo on November 24, 2012. |
6. Central African Republic
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| Women push a coffin in the streets of Bangui on December 7. Violence has raged in the Central African Republic since a coalition of rebels deposed President Francois Bozize in March, the latest in a series of coups since the nation gained independence. |
7. Yemen
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| Yemenis shout slogans during a rally commemorating the second anniversary of a major clash between opposition protesters against former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh and security forces, in the capital Sanaa, on September 18, 2013. |
8. Libya
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| Libyan protesters gather during a demonstration calling on militiamen to vacate their headquarters in southern Tripoli on November 15, 2013. |
9. South Sudan
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| Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir speaks to a crowd of people in north Khartoum, on June 8, 2013. Bashir ordered a halt to the flow of oil from South Sudan, less than two months after southern crude began moving again. |
10. Iraq
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| Flames rise from a vehicle at the site of a car bomb in Talibiya in Baghdad on September 3, 2013. More than 7,000 civilians and 950 security forces have been killed in violence in Iraq since January, according to the U.N. -- the highest annual toll since 2008. |
Hong Kong (CNN) -- Growing levels of conflict,
terrorism, and the toppling of regimes in the Middle East and North
Africa, as well as political violence in East Africa, are driving a rise
in political instability worldwide, according to research by UK risk
analysis firm, Maplecroft released on Thursday.
Since 2010, one in ten of
the countries surveyed have experienced a significant increase in the
level of short-term political risk.
These risks include
governments asserting control over natural resources, regimes being
ousted by popular uprisings and the expropriation of foreign investors'
assets.
The findings form part of
the latest Maplecroft Political Risk Atlas, which uses 52 indicators to
help companies monitor political issues affecting the business
environment in 197 countries.
Since 2010, Syria has
deteriorated the most. It now ranks second compared with a 44th place
ranking in 2010. Somalia topped the rankings.
Afghanistan, Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo also ranked in the top five.
Egypt has been downgraded
to "extreme risk" for the first time as a result of violence following
the ousting of former President Mohamed Morsy and an increase in
terrorist attacks in the Sinai Peninsula, the report said.
Maplecroft warned that
Syria, Egypt and Libya are "now so bad" that they will be "mired in
exceptionally high levels of dynamic political risk for years to come."
A fall in political
violence in the Philippines, India and Uganda has contributed to these
countries experiencing the biggest reduction in short-term political
risk over the past four years.
Improvements in the level of governance has also helped to lower risk levels in Malaysia and Israel in the same period.
Social unrest
The report said there is
a higher chance for social unrest to exacerbate political instability
in Bangladesh, Belarus, China, Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia and Vietnam.
"This is due to the
erosion of democratic freedoms, increasing crackdowns on political
position and the brutality by security forces towards protesters,
compounded by rising food prices and worsening working conditions,"
Maplecroft said in a statement.
Another concern for foreign investors is that there has been a major increase in oppression by governments worldwide.
"This erosion of
political freedoms is central to driving the wider risk of unrest and
instability in the medium- to long term," said Charlotte Ingham, senior
political risk analyst at Maplecroft.
In the short term,
foreign investors face a heightened risk of becoming complicit with the
actions of these oppressive regimes, which poses a threat to a company's
reputation, the think tank said.
Empowered youth
Instability increases as
the gap grows between political freedoms and social gains, such as
education and computer literacy among young people.
In 2010, prior to the
the Arab Spring, Libya, Tunisia, Iran, Syria and Egypt were among the
countries with the biggest divide between political freedoms and social
gains.
Maplecroft predicts that
the growing imbalance between social gains and political freedoms in
Bahrain, Azerbaijan and South Africa will heighten the risk of
instability in those countries in 2014 and beyond.
Although China is
categorized as "extreme risk" in Maplecroft's ranking of oppressive
regimes, the speed of the country's governance reforms is likely to be
sufficient to limit the chances of widespread social unrest that could
lead to a "jasmine" revolution, according to the think tank.
But China's increased
scrutiny of foreign business practices has created compliance challenges
for companies operating there, the report added.
Maplecroft cautioned
that Vietnam's crackdown on social media and freedom of speech amid
growing opposition may undermine the stability of the government in the
long term.
Poland has experienced a
significant increase in the level of political freedoms over the past
four years, according to Maplecroft, and now displays a "near perfect
balance" between the level of political freedoms and social gains, which
reduces the likelihood of protests and disputes over labor conditions.
Political violence
East African countries
saw the biggest increase in the risk of political violence, including
terrorism, poor governance, and regimes vulnerable to popular uprisings.
Somalia, Sudan and South Sudan scored in the "extreme risk" category,
while Kenya and Ethiopia are "high risk." Eritrea, Tanzania and
Mozambique also saw a change in their risk category.
Three years after the
Arab Spring, more than 60% of countries in the Middle East and North
Africa region have seen a significant rise in political violence,
demonstrating the long-term political risks associated with forced
regime change, the report said.
In the West, the impact of the global financial crisis continues to be seen in high levels of unemployment and underemployment.
This, combined with
austerity measures, has contributed to growing inequality and stalling
or declining living standards, according to Maplecroft.
Political landscapes
both in Europe and the United States have become increasingly fragmented
and polarized as populist parties flourished in response to growing
voter dissatisfaction with established political parties over these
issues.
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